I have just read news that the Russians, French, and Germans and have chosen to act in concert to prevent any US-Britain led efforts against Iraq. Why these countries would choose to allow a madman to continue to control oil, nuclear resources, and a strategic location have been widely commented on.

In all of these commentaries, I have yet to note one basic fact: the Russians are the new source of oil for the free market (yes, free market because of recent development deals, not because of newly discovered resources). As is, the Russian can be assured that Iraq will both make payments on its debt to Russia, which I understand to be about $8 billion, and make money under oil development deals.

If Iraq is removed from the sanction regime (which is almost without debate in a military govermment scenario), would not Iraq become a source of oil at prices not conducive to OPEC, France, or . . . Russia? Iraq without Saddam is like Texas with the Sherman Anti-Trust Act -- no cartel (i.e., OPEC) to set the marginal price of oil (or at least trying to do so) and open competition from Iraq.

Russia stands to lose contracts and it stands to lose its profit margins. Not good for a cash starved nation.